A monthly electronic newsletter summarizing Minnesota climate conditions and the resulting impact on water resources.

Distributed on the Wednesday following the first Monday of each month.

State Climatology Office - DNR Waters

compiled 5/3/05

WHAT HAS HAPPENED

- April 2005 monthly precipitation totals varied widely across Minnesota. Monthly precipitation totals across much of the northern one third of the state were well below average, whereas portions of central and southern Minnesota received above average precipitation. Many areas in northwestern and northeastern Minnesota reported less than one half inch of precipitation for April. By contrast, some sections of west central and south central Minnesota received over four inches of rain for the month.
(see: http://climate.umn.edu/cawap/monsum/monsum.asp , http://climate.umn.edu/doc/weekmap/weekmap_050502.htm )
- April 2005 monthly mean temperatures were three to six degrees above the historical average across Minnesota. Near record-setting warm temperatures during the first three weeks of the month were counterbalanced by a multi-day cold snap at month's end. The temperature extremes for April ranged from 87 degrees at Moorhead on the 18th, to 8 degrees at Embarrass (St. Louis county) on the 24th.
(see: http://climate.umn.edu/cawap/monsum/monsum.asp )


WHERE WE STAND NOW

- as of April 26, the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) - U. S. Drought Monitor indicated that all Minnesota counties are free of drought designations. The NDMC index is a blend of science and subjectivity where intensity categories are based on six key indicators and numerous supplementary indicators.
(see: http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html )
- the Minnesota Agricultural Statistics Service reports that as of April 29, the state's topsoil moisture was 1% very short, 3% short, 84% adequate, and 12% surplus.
(see: http://www.nass.usda.gov/mn/cwmn.htm )
- all of Minnesota's lakes are now free of ice. Very warm temperatures during the first three weeks of April led to early lake ice-out. Lake ice-out was five to ten days earlier than the historical average in many locations.
(see: http://climate.umn.edu/doc/ice_out/ice_out_status_05.htm )
- the U.S. Geological Survey indicates that stream discharge values for nearly all of Minnesota's rivers are near the historical median for the date.
(see: http://water.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/dailyMainW?state=mn&map_type=weekd , http://climate.umn.edu/dow/weekly_stream_flow/stream_flow_weekly.asp )
- the potential for wildfires is rated by DNR Forestry as "very high" in some central Minnesota counties. The fire danger rating in northwestern, west central, and east central Minnesota is "high". Elsewhere the fire danger is designated as "moderate".
(see: http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/forestry/fire/ )

FUTURE PROSPECTS

- the May precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center indicates a tendency towards above normal conditions in all but far northern Minnesota. May precipitation normals range from just over two inches in northwestern Minnesota to just less than four inches in southeastern counties. The historical probability of measurable precipitation for any given day in May ranges from 25 percent in the northwest to near 40 percent in the southeast.
(see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day , http://climate.umn.edu/img/normals/precip/precip_norm_05.htm )
- the May temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center indicates no significant tendencies away from climatological probabilities across Minnesota. Normal May high temperatures are in the low to mid-60's early in the month, rising to the low to mid-70's at month's end. Normal May low temperatures are in the mid-30's to near 40 to start the month and climb to the mid-40's to low 50's as the month ends.
(see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day , http://climate.umn.edu/img/normals/temp_norm_adj/temp_norm_adj_05.htm )
- the 90-day precipitation outlook for May through July indicates a strong tendency towards above normal rainfall across Minnesota. The May through July temperature outlook leans heavily towards below normal conditions statewide.
(see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/lead01/index.html )
- the National Weather Service produces long-range probabilistic river stage and discharge outlooks for the Red River, Minnesota River, and Mississippi River basins. These products are part of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS).
(see: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc/ahps/ESPMAPS )


FROM THE AUTHOR

- none 


NOTES FROM AROUND THE STATE

- none


UPCOMING DATES OF NOTE

- May 19, Climate Prediction Center releases 30/90 day temperature and precipitation outlooks


WEB SITES FEATURED IN THIS EDITION

http://climate.umn.edu - Minnesota Climatology Working Group
http://www.drought.unl.edu - National Drought Mitigation Center
http://www.nass.usda.gov/mn/ - Minnesota Agricultural Statistics Service
http://water.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/dailyMainW?state=mn&map_type=weekd - U.S. Geological Survey
http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/forestry/fire/ - Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, Division of Forestry
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov - Climate Prediction Center
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc/ - National Weather Service, North Central River Forecast Center


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

- none

Contributions of information and suggestions are welcome!