A monthly electronic newsletter summarizing Minnesota climate conditions and the resulting impact on water resources.

Distributed on the Wednesday following the first Monday of each month.

State Climatology Office - DNR Waters

compiled 10/5/05

WHAT HAS HAPPENED

- rainfall varied widely across Minnesota in September 2005. For the southern one half of Minnesota, the 2005 growing season ended on a very wet note. All-time high monthly rainfall records were set in some communities. For many locations in central and southern Minnesota, September precipitation totals topped seven inches. Rainfall in some locations exceeded ten inches for the month. By contrast, northeast and north central Minnesota saw dry July and August weather conditions continue into September. Three-month rainfall totals for the July-through-September period fell short of average by five or more inches in portions of northeastern Minnesota.
(see: http://climate.umn.edu/cawap/monsum/monsum.asp , http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/wet_September_2005.htm , http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/dry_July-September_2005.htm )
- multiple severe weather episodes impacted southern Minnesota during September 2005. The most significant rainfall event of the month occurred September 24 and 25 in south central Minnesota. A 1000-plus square mile area from near Jackson to near Albert Lea received over six inches of rain as waves of thunderstorms passed over the same landscape. Winnebago (Faribault county) reported 9.01 inches of rain and Fairmont (Martin county) reported 8.74 inches during this event.
(see: http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/flash_floods/ff050924_25.htm , http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/severe050921.htm , http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/heavy_rain050914.htm , http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/flash_floods/ff050913.htm , http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/flash_floods/ff050904.htm )
- September 2005 monthly mean temperatures were much above normal across Minnesota. September mean temperatures topped the historical average by four or more degrees in most locales. In the Twin Cities, the mean daily temperature was above average for 25 out of 30 September days. The temperature extremes for September ranged from 93 degrees at Browns Valley and Ortonville on the 10th, to 18 degrees at Embarrass (St. Louis county) on the 29th.
(see: http://climate.umn.edu/cawap/monsum/monsum.asp , http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/warm0509.htm )


WHERE WE STAND NOW

- seasonal precipitation totals to date (April 1 - early October) demonstrate substantial spatial variation across Minnesota. In general terms, seasonal precipitation totals are well above average in western and southern Minnesota counties, and well below average in northeastern and some north central counties. In many sections of northwestern, west central and southern Minnesota, seasonal precipitation totals are greater than 125 percent of normal. Seasonal rainfall totals in some of these areas are near, or above, all-time record seasonal values to date. By contrast, rainfall across much of northeastern Minnesota has been less than 80 percent of normal precipitation for the growing season.
(see: http://climate.umn.edu/doc/weekmap.asp )
- as of September 27, the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) - U. S. Drought Monitor indicated that a large portion of northeastern Minnesota is judged to be in the "D1 Drought - Moderate" category. Some portions of east central and northeastern Minnesota are deemed to be in the "D0 - Abnormally Dry" category. All other Minnesota counties are free of drought designations. The NDMC index is a blend of science and subjectivity where intensity categories are based on six key indicators and numerous supplementary indicators.
(see: http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html )
- the Minnesota Agricultural Statistics Service reports that as of September 30, the state's topsoil moisture was 1% very short, 3% short, 81% adequate, and 15% surplus. The University of Minnesota Southern Research and Outreach Center in Waseca (south central Minnesota) reports that tile lines are flowing vigorously for the second September in a row.
(see: http://www.nass.usda.gov/mn/cwmn.htm )
- the U.S. Geological Survey indicates that stream discharge values vary significantly across Minnesota. Stream flows in northeastern Minnesota remain quite low, falling below the 10th percentile for the date in some locations. Stream flows in the southern one half of Minnesota are high, topping the 90th percentile for the date in many spots. Some monitoring locations in the Minnesota River basin are indicating all-time high 7-day average flows for this time of year.
(see: http://water.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/dailyMainW?state=mn&map_type=weekd , http://climate.umn.edu/dow/weekly_stream_flow/stream_flow_weekly.asp )
- the potential for wildfires is rated by DNR Forestry as "low" across Minnesota.
(see: http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/forestry/fire/ )



FUTURE PROSPECTS

- the October precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center indicates no significant tendencies away from climatological probabilities across Minnesota. Normal October precipitation ranges from one and one half inches in northwestern Minnesota, to over two and one half inches in portions of north central and northeastern Minnesota.
(see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day , http://climate.umn.edu/img/normals/precip/precip_norm_10.htm )
- the October temperature outlook also shows no significant tendencies away from climatological probabilities. Normal October high temperatures fall from the low to mid 60's early in the month to the upper 40's by month's end. Normal October low temperatures drop from the low 40's early in the month to near 30 by late October.
(see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day , http://climate.umn.edu/img/normals/temp_norm_adj/temp_norm_adj_10.htm )
- the 90-day precipitation outlook for October through December indicates no significant tendencies away from climatological probabilities across Minnesota. The October through December temperature outlook also shows no tendencies away from climatological probabilities.
(see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/lead01/index.html )
- the National Weather Service produces long-range probabilistic river stage and discharge outlooks for the Red River, Minnesota River, and Mississippi River basins. These products are part of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS).
(see: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc/ahps/ESPMAPS )


FROM THE AUTHOR

- we are pleased to announce that the 13th annual presentation in the Kuehnast Lecture Series in Meteorology and Climatology will be held Friday, October 14, 2005 at 3:30 PM. The lecture location is Room 335 of Borlaug Hall on the University of Minnesota St Paul Campus. The title of this year's lecture is "The Hundred Year Hunt for the Red Sprite", presented by Dr. Walt Lyons, President of the American Meteorological Society. Dr. Lyons was an adjunct faculty member of the University of Minnesota and a broadcast meteorologist for KSTP and WCCO television stations in the Twin Cities. After leaving the Twin Cities and moving to Colorado in the 1980s, Dr. Lyons established Forensic Meteorology Associates, Inc., and conducted research projects for NASA, EPA, NOAA, and NSF. He also became an adjunct faculty member at Colorado State University. He is an esteemed researcher, author (over 200 papers, books, and reports) and former broadcast meteorologist (serving on the Board of Broadcast Meteorology for the AMS). He has maintained numerous professional and personal connections to Minnesota and is delighted to be our speaker this year. The Kuehnast family established an endowment directed toward teaching and learning in atmospheric science. The lecture series is co-sponsored by the University of Minnesota Department of Soil, Water, and Climate - Kuehnast Endowment Fund and the local chapter of Sigma XI (The Scientific Research Society). 



NOTES FROM AROUND THE STATE

- none


UPCOMING DATES OF NOTE

- October 14, Kuehnast Lecture Series (see above)
- October 20, Climate Prediction Center releases 30/90 day temperature and precipitation outlooks


WEB SITES FEATURED IN THIS EDITION

http://climate.umn.edu - Minnesota Climatology Working Group
http://www.drought.unl.edu - National Drought Mitigation Center
http://www.nass.usda.gov/mn/ - Minnesota Agricultural Statistics Service
http://water.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/dailyMainW?state=mn&map_type=weekd - U.S. Geological Survey
http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/forestry/fire/ - Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, Division of Forestry
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov - Climate Prediction Center
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc/ - National Weather Service, North Central River Forecast Center


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

- none

Contributions of information and suggestions are welcome!