A monthly electronic newsletter summarizing Minnesota climate conditions and the resulting impact on water resources.

Distributed on the Wednesday following the first Monday of each month.

State Climatology Office - DNR Waters

compiled 11/8/05   (early distribution by one day)

WHAT HAS HAPPENED

- precipitation totals varied widely across Minnesota in October 2005. Precipitation amounts in central and east central Minnesota were very high, exceeding historical averages by two or more inches. By contrast, rainfall amounts in southeastern Minnesota fell short of average by one to two inches. 
(see: http://climate.umn.edu/cawap/monsum/monsum.asp )
- the most significant precipitation event of the month occurred on October 4 and 5. During this two-day period, extraordinarily heavy rain fell upon central and east central Minnesota. Portions of the following counties received over six inches of rain: Dakota, Benton, Mille Lacs, Isanti, Chisago, Kanabec, and Pine. A six inch rainfall event in October is nearly without precedent in Minnesota.
(see: http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/flash_floods/ff051004-05.htm )
- October 2005 monthly mean temperatures were above normal across the state. October mean temperatures topped the historical average by one to four degrees in most locales. The temperature extremes for October ranged from 90 degrees at Albert Lea on the 3rd, to 15 degrees at Embarrass (St. Louis county) on the 16th. In most Minnesota communities, temperatures have been above normal for seven or eight of the ten months in 2005.
(see: http://climate.umn.edu/cawap/monsum/monsum.asp , http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/warm051003.htm )


WHERE WE STAND NOW

- as Minnesota enters the winter season, soil moisture profiles and surface water systems are adequately to excessively recharged across most of the landscape. This year's warm season (April through October) precipitation totals were well above historical averages in many Minnesota communities. Precipitation totals for April through October 2005 exceeded historical averages by four or more inches across large sections of Minnesota. When compared with other April through October periods in the historical database, 2005 warm season rainfall totals ranked above the 90th percentile in many sections of southern, central, west central, and northwestern Minnesota. The wet weather was not universally distributed across the state during the warm season. Precipitation totals for the April through October time frame fell short of normal by 20 or more percent in St. Louis, Lake, and Cook counties.
(see: http://climate.umn.edu/doc/weekmap.asp )
- as of November 1, the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) - U. S. Drought Monitor indicated that a portion of northeastern Minnesota is judged to be in the "D0 - Abnormally Dry" category. All other Minnesota counties are free of drought designations. The NDMC index is a blend of science and subjectivity where intensity categories are based on six key indicators and numerous supplementary indicators.
(see: http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html )
- the Minnesota Agricultural Statistics Service reports that as of November 1, the state's topsoil moisture was 0% very short, 2% short, 92% adequate, and 6% surplus.
(see: http://www.nass.usda.gov/mn/cwmn.htm )
- the U.S. Geological Survey indicates that stream discharge values vary significantly across Minnesota. Stream flows in northeastern Minnesota remain quite low, falling below the 10th percentile for the date in some locations. Elsewhere in Minnesota, stream flows are high. Stream discharge values for nearly one-half of Minnesota's streams are above the 75th percentile for the date. Some streams in the Red River and Upper Minnesota River basins report 7-day average flows that top the 90th percentile for the date.
(see: http://water.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/dailyMainW?state=mn&map_type=weekd )
- the potential for wildfires is rated by DNR Forestry as "low" across the northern two-thirds of Minnesota. The fire danger rating is "moderate" over the southern one-third of the state.
(see: http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/forestry/fire/ )



FUTURE PROSPECTS

- the November precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center indicates no significant tendencies away from climatological probabilities across Minnesota. November precipitation normals range from around one inch in western Minnesota to over two inches in eastern sections of the state. The average date of the first enduring snow cover ranges from the first week of November in northeastern Minnesota, to the final week of November in south central counties.
(see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day , http://climate.umn.edu/img/normals/precip/precip_norm_11.htm )
- the November temperature outlook leans towards above-normal conditions over most of Minnesota. Normal November high temperatures are in the mid-40's to upper 40's to start the month, dropping to the mid-20's to near 30 by month's end. Normal lows are in the upper 20's early in the month, falling into the mid-teens by late November.
(see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day , http://climate.umn.edu/img/normals/temp_norm_adj/temp_norm_adj_11.htm )
- the 90-day precipitation outlook for November through January indicates no significant tendencies away from climatological probabilities across Minnesota. The November through January temperature outlook shows a tilt towards above-normal conditions in southwestern Minnesota. Elsewhere in Minnesota, the outlook offers equal chances for above-normal, near-normal, or below-normal temperatures.
(see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/lead01/index.html )
- the National Weather Service produces long-range probabilistic river stage and discharge outlooks for the Red River, Minnesota River, and Mississippi River basins. These products are part of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS).
(see: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc/ahps/esp_maps/map/m10000.php )


FROM THE AUTHOR

- none


NOTES FROM AROUND THE STATE

- none


UPCOMING DATES OF NOTE

- November 17, Climate Prediction Center releases 30/90 day temperature and precipitation outlooks


WEB SITES FEATURED IN THIS EDITION

http://climate.umn.edu - Minnesota Climatology Working Group
http://www.drought.unl.edu - National Drought Mitigation Center
http://www.nass.usda.gov/mn/ - Minnesota Agricultural Statistics Service
http://water.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/dailyMainW?state=mn&map_type=weekd - U.S. Geological Survey
http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/forestry/fire/ - Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, Division of Forestry
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov - Climate Prediction Center
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc/ - National Weather Service, North Central River Forecast Center


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

- none

Contributions of information and suggestions are welcome!