A monthly electronic newsletter summarizing Minnesota climate conditions and the resulting impact on water resources.

Distributed on the Wednesday following the first Monday of each month.

State Climatology Office - DNR Waters

compiled 6/7/06

WHAT HAS HAPPENED

- May 2006 precipitation totals in many Minnesota communities fell short of the historical average by one or more inches. Combined with the extreme heat of late May, this led to a rapid drying of the landscape. The only significant exceptions to the overall dryness were portions of St. Louis and Lake counties and small sections of west central Minnesota where May precipitation exceeded the historical average by two or more inches. 
(see: http://climate.umn.edu/cawap/monsum/monsum.asp )
- one of the more notable rain events of May 2006 was produced by a sequence of thunderstorms that passed over Big Stone, Traverse, and Stevens counties on May 23. Nearly three inches of rain fell over a three hour period leading to small stream flooding and a road wash-out in Stevens county.
- May 2006 monthly mean temperatures were slightly above average for most locations. Chilly temperatures encountered over the Mother's Day weekend were offset by very hot weather during the Memorial Day weekend. With the exception of North Shore areas, most communities reported temperatures in the 90s at least once over the holiday weekend. Many high temperature and high minimum temperature records were set on May 24, 27, and 28. The temperature extremes for May ranged from 99 degrees at Benson, Olivia, Glencoe, and St. James on the 28th, to 17 degrees at Embarrass (St. Louis county) on the 21st.
(see: http://climate.umn.edu/cawap/monsum/monsum.asp , http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/hotmemorial060529.htm )


WHERE WE STAND NOW

- growing season precipitation totals to date (April 1 - early June) are highly variable across Minnesota. While seasonal precipitation totals are near historical averages throughout much of the state, pockets of dryness or wetness exist in some areas. April-plus-May rainfall totals in sections of northwestern Minnesota fell short of the historical averages. Whereas, the southern tier of Minnesota counties, along with portions of northeastern Minnesota, report greater than normal growing season rainfall to date. 
(see: http://climate.umn.edu/doc/weekmap.asp )
- as of May 30, the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) - U. S. Drought Monitor indicated that all Minnesota counties are free of drought designations. The NDMC index is a blend of science and subjectivity where intensity categories are based on six key indicators and numerous supplementary indicators.
(see: http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html )
- the Minnesota Agricultural Statistics Service reports that as of June 2, the state's topsoil moisture was 3% very short, 19% short, 72% adequate, and 6% surplus.
(see: http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Minnesota/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/index.asp )
- the U.S. Geological Survey indicates that stream discharge values for the majority of Minnesota's rivers and streams rank near the historical median. In some areas of west central and northwestern Minnesota, stream flows exceed the 75h percentile when compared with historical data for this date. Stream flows in some east central and northeast Minnesota watersheds are below the 25th percentile for the date.
(see: http://water.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/dailyMainW?state=mn&map_type=weekd , http://climate.umn.edu/dow/weekly_stream_flow/stream_flow_weekly.asp )
- the potential for wildfires is rated by DNR Forestry as "low" in all Minnesota counties.
(see: http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/forestry/fire/ )


FUTURE PROSPECTS

- the June precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center indicates no significant tendencies away from climatological probabilities across Minnesota. June is historically the wettest month of the year with precipitation normals ranging from three and one half inches in western Minnesota, to over four inches and one half inches in many central and eastern Minnesota counties. The historical probability of measurable precipitation for any given day in June ranges from 33 percent in the northwest to near 40 percent in eastern Minnesota.
(see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day , http://climate.umn.edu/img/normals/precip/precip_norm_06.htm )
- the June temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center indicates a tendency towards above normal conditions in western Minnesota, with no significant tendencies away from climatological probabilities in the eastern one half of the state. Normal June high temperatures are in the low to mid 70's early in the month, rising to around 80 by month's end. Normal June low temperatures are in the low 50's to start the month, and rise to around 60 as the month ends.
(see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day , http://climate.umn.edu/img/normals/temp_norm_adj/temp_norm_adj_06.htm )
- the 90-day precipitation outlook for June through August indicates no significant tendencies away from climatological probabilities across Minnesota. The June through August temperature outlook also indicates no tendencies away from climatological probabilities.
(see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/lead01/index.html )


FROM THE AUTHOR

- none


NOTES FROM AROUND THE STATE

- none


UPCOMING DATES OF NOTE

- June 15, Climate Prediction Center releases 30/90 day temperature and precipitation outlooks


WEB SITES FEATURED IN THIS EDITION

http://climate.umn.edu - Minnesota Climatology Working Group
http://www.drought.unl.edu - National Drought Mitigation Center
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Minnesota/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/index.asp - USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
http://water.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/dailyMainW?state=mn&map_type=weekd - U.S. Geological Survey
http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/waters - Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, Division of Waters
http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/forestry - Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, Division of Forestry
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov - Climate Prediction Center


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

- none

Contributions of information and suggestions are welcome!