A monthly electronic newsletter summarizing Minnesota climate conditions and the resulting impact on water resources.

Distributed on the Wednesday following the first Monday of each month.

State Climatology Office - DNR Waters

compiled 7/6/06

WHAT HAS HAPPENED

- June 2006 precipitation totals in many Minnesota communities fell short of the historical average by one to three inches. For most communities, it was the second consecutive month of below average rainfall. The only significant exceptions to the overall dryness were isolated areas of southern Minnesota bolstered by a single, intense rainfall event (see below).
(see: http://climate.umn.edu/cawap/monsum/monsum.asp )
- the most notable rain event of June 2006 fell on June 9 and June 10 in southern Minnesota. The overnight storm dropped two to four inches of rain along a very narrow band that extended from Redwood county in the west to Winona county in the east. The heavy rain led to a mud slide in Mankato, and urban flooding in Owatonna.
- June 2006 monthly mean temperatures were near to somewhat above average. The month lacked for hot days, with the highest readings of the month reaching only into the low 90's. The coldest temperature of the month was 25 degrees on June 10 at Embarrass (St. Louis county).
(see: http://climate.umn.edu/cawap/monsum/monsum.asp )


WHERE WE STAND NOW

- growing season precipitation totals to date (April 1 - early July) are highly variable across Minnesota. Most of Minnesota reported below normal rainfall totals for the months of May and June. However, these deficits were tempered by above normal rainfall totals in the southern two thirds of the state in April. The northern third of Minnesota did not receive above normal April rainfall, therefore the dryness is most pronounced in these areas. Of greatest concern are the deficits found in some northwestern Minnesota counties. April through June rainfall totals in these areas rank below the 20th percentile when compared with historical data for these three months.
(see: http://climate.umn.edu/doc/weekmap.asp )
- as of June 27, the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) - U. S. Drought Monitor indicated that counties in the northern one third of Minnesota fall in the "DO - Abnormally Dry" category. All other Minnesota counties are free of drought designations. The NDMC index is a blend of science and subjectivity where intensity categories are based on six key indicators and numerous supplementary indicators.
(see: http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html )
- the Minnesota Agricultural Statistics Service reports that as of June 30, the state's topsoil moisture was 8% very short, 29% short, 62% adequate, and 1% surplus.
(see: http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Minnesota/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/index.asp )
- the U.S. Geological Survey indicates that stream discharge values for many rivers and streams in the northern one half of Minnesota rank below the 25th percentile when compared with historical data for this date. In some cases, stream flow in these areas ranks below the 10th percentile for the date. Stream discharge values for most rivers and streams in the southern one half of the state are near the historical median.
(see: http://water.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/dailyMainW?state=mn&map_type=weekd , http://climate.umn.edu/dow/weekly_stream_flow/stream_flow_weekly.asp )
- the potential for wildfires is rated by DNR Forestry as "high" in portions of northern Minnesota. The fire danger potential is rated as "moderate" in all other locations in the northern one half of Minnesota. Wildfire potential is depicted as "low" across the southern one half of Minnesota.
(see: http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/forestry/fire/ )


FUTURE PROSPECTS

- the July precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center indicates no significant tendencies away from climatological probabilities across Minnesota. July precipitation normals range from just over three inches in far northwestern Minnesota to over four inches in eastern sections of the state.
(see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day , http://climate.umn.edu/img/normals/precip/precip_norm_07.htm )
- the July temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center indicates a tendency towards above normal conditions in western Minnesota, with no significant tendencies away from climatological probabilities in the eastern one half of the state. Normal July high temperatures are in the low to mid 80's. Normal July lows are around 60 degrees.
(see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day , http://climate.umn.edu/img/normals/temp_norm_adj/temp_norm_adj_07.htm )
- the 90-day precipitation outlook for July through September indicates no significant tendencies away from climatological probabilities across Minnesota. The July through September temperature outlook indicates a tilt towards above normal conditions statewide.
(see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/lead01/index.html )


FROM THE AUTHOR

- We are hearing consistent reports of advanced phenological development across Minnesota. Plant growth (both crops and in natural settings) seems to be two weeks ahead of schedule. This is probably due to the warm April weather, somewhat timely rains, and a lack of stress-producing hot spells. 

- If the present dry spell persists, we will begin to hear more about slipping crop conditions and diminishing surface water levels. The prospects for rain over the next five days are not good. On the bright side, the six-to-ten day outlook from the National Weather Service calls for above normal rainfall in northern Minnesota.


NOTES FROM AROUND THE STATE

- none


UPCOMING DATES OF NOTE

- July 20, Climate Prediction Center releases 30/90 day temperature and precipitation outlooks


WEB SITES FEATURED IN THIS EDITION

http://climate.umn.edu - Minnesota Climatology Working Group
http://www.drought.unl.edu - National Drought Mitigation Center
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Minnesota/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/index.asp - USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
http://water.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/dailyMainW?state=mn&map_type=weekd - U.S. Geological Survey
http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/waters - Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, Division of Waters
http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/forestry - Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, Division of Forestry
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov - Climate Prediction Center


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

- none

Contributions of information and suggestions are welcome!