HydroClim Minnesota - June 2007

A monthly electronic newsletter summarizing Minnesota climate conditions and the resulting impact on water resources.

Distributed on the Wednesday following the first Monday of each month.

State Climatology Office - DNR Waters

compiled 6/6/07

WHAT HAPPENED IN MAY

- May 2007 precipitation totals were variable across Minnesota. Many west central, northwest, and north central Minnesota locations reported above-average precipitation for the month. Monthly precipitation was below average in central Minnesota counties and in some areas of southwestern Minnesota. For those areas of northern Minnesota where precipitation did not exceed normal, the May rains were still ample enough to ease wildfire concerns and improve drought conditions somewhat. In west central Minnesota, it was the fourth consecutive month of above normal precipitation.
(see: http://climate.umn.edu/cawap/monsum/monsum.asp)
- monthly mean temperatures for May 2007 were somewhat warm across all of Minnesota. Temperatures were generally two to four degrees above the historical average. Extreme values for May ranged from 95 degrees at Morris (Stevens County) on the 13th, to 25 degrees at Embarrass (St. Louis County) on the 17th. Frost was reported on the morning of May 17 in northern Minnesota and in southeastern Minnesota, but little crop damage was reported.
(see: http://climate.umn.edu/cawap/monsum/monsum.asp )
- early May brought weather conditions that were highly conducive to an explosive wildfire situation. The rapid spread of the Ham Lake fire in Cook County was the result of an alignment of these unfortunate conditions. As the month began, the area was deemed to be in a "Severe" to "Extreme" drought. Light and heavy fuels were very dry and spring green-up was just underway. Daytime temperatures on May 8 and 9 reached well into the 80's while the relative humidity was below 30 percent. In addition, strong winds of variable direction impacted the fire-fighting effort.

WHERE WE STAND NOW

- growing season precipitation totals to date (April 1 through early June) are above average across much of western and northern Minnesota. Portions of west central Minnesota have received over 200% of normal precipitation for the April 1 through June 5 time period. If the period of investigation is extended back to February 1, precipitation totals for the four-month interval topped historical averages by more than eight inches in portions of Big Stone, Traverse, Grant, Wilken, Ottertail, and Clay counties. Conversely, some southeastern Minnesota counties have received below-normal rainfall thus far this growing season.
(see: http://climate.umn.edu/doc/weekmap.asp )
- the U. S. Drought Monitor released on May 31 indicates that portions of north central and northeastern Minnesota remain in a serious drought situation. These areas are deemed to be undergoing "Severe" to "Extreme" drought. Many other northern Minnesota counties are depicted in the "Moderate Drought" or "Abnormally Dry" categories. Due to wet weather in the late-winter, and during the spring, the geographic extent of the most intense drought areas has diminished. The NDMC index is a blend of science and subjectivity where intensity categories are based on several indicators.
(see: http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html , http://drought.unl.edu/dm/6_week.gif )
- the U.S. Geological Survey reports that stream discharge values are at, or near, all-time highs for the date across much of the upper Red River basin. Moderate to major flooding is underway or anticipated along the upper reaches of the Red River. Stream discharge values in the upper Minnesota River basin, as well as some central Minnesota watersheds, are also quite high. River levels along the International border remain low.
(see: http://water.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/dailyMainW?state=mn&map_type=weekd , http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=fgf , http://climate.umn.edu/dow/weekly_stream_flow/stream_flow_weekly.asp )
- water levels on Lake Superior, as well as on some north central and northeastern Minnesota lakes, remain low.  
(see: http://www.lre.usace.army.mil/_kd/Items/actions.cfm?action=Show&item_id=3886&destination=ShowItem , http://www.lwcb.ca/waterflowdata.html )
- the Minnesota Agricultural Statistics Service reports that as of June 1, the state's topsoil moisture was 1% very short, 12% short, 76% adequate, and 11% surplus. A large fraction of Minnesota's crops are reported in good to excellent condition.
(see: http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Minnesota/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/index.asp )
- the potential for wildfires is rated by DNR Forestry as "low" in all Minnesota counties.
(see: http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/forestry/fire/ )

FUTURE PROSPECTS

- the June precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center indicates no significant tendencies away from climatological probabilities across Minnesota, with the exception of Minnesota's Arrowhead region. In far northeastern Minnesota, the 30-day precipitation outlook tilts towards above-normal values. June is historically the wettest month of the year with precipitation normals ranging from three and one half inches in western Minnesota, to over four inches and one half inches in many central and eastern Minnesota counties. The historical probability of measurable precipitation for any given day in June ranges from 33 percent in the northwest to near 40 percent in eastern Minnesota.
(see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day , http://climate.umn.edu/img/normals/precip/precip_norm_06.htm )
- the June temperature outlook indicates no significant tendencies away from climatological probabilities across Minnesota. Normal June high temperatures are in the low to mid 70's early in the month, rising to around 80 by month's end. Normal June low temperatures are in the low 50's to start the month, and rise to around 60 as the month ends.
(see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day , http://climate.umn.edu/img/normals/temp_norm_adj/temp_norm_adj_06.htm )
- the 90-day precipitation outlook for June through August indicates no significant tendencies away from climatological probabilities across Minnesota. The June through August temperature projection also indicates no significant tendencies away from climatological probabilities.
(see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/lead01/index.html )
- the National Weather Service produces long-range probabilistic river stage and discharge outlooks for the Red River, Minnesota River, and Mississippi River basins. These products are part of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS).
(see: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc/ )

NOTES FROM THE AUTHOR

- none

NOTES FROM AROUND THE STATE

- none

UPCOMING DATES OF NOTE

- June 21: National Weather Service releases 30/90 day temperature and precipitation outlooks

WEB SITES FEATURED IN THIS EDITION

http://climate.umn.edu - Minnesota Climatology Working Group, Minnesota DNR Waters and University of Minnesota Department of Soil, Water, and Climate
http://www.drought.unl.edu - National Drought Mitigation Center
http://water.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/dailyMainW?state=mn&map_type=weekd - U.S. Geological Survey
http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/waters - Minnesota DNR Waters
http://www.lre.usace.army.mil - Detroit District, US Army Corps of Engineers
http://www.lwcb.ca/ - Lake of the Woods Control Board
http://www.nass.usda.gov - USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/forestry - Minnesota DNR Forestry
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov - Climate Prediction Center, National Weather Service
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc - North Central River Forecast Center - Chanhassen, National Weather Service

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

- none

To subscribe or unsubscribe to "HydroClim" please notify Greg Spoden:
gspoden@umn.edu or greg.spoden@dnr.state.mn.us
651-296-4214

Contributions of information and suggestions are welcome!