HydroClim Minnesota - November 2007

A monthly electronic newsletter summarizing Minnesota climate conditions and the resulting impact on water resources.

Distributed on the Wednesday following the first Monday of each month.

State Climatology Office - DNR Waters

compiled 11/7/2007

WHAT HAPPENED IN OCTOBER

- October 2007 rainfall totals were well above historical averages in nearly all Minnesota counties. As was the case in September, drought-stricken regions of central and northern Minnesota received welcome rains, further improving the situation. October monthly rainfall totals in excess of four inches were common across Minnesota, approximately doubling the October normal. On a statewide basis, it was the third wettest October in the modern record. For many northeastern Minnesota communities, it was the wettest October ever, with precipitation totals topping eight inches in a few places. Many of these same locations had set all-time high precipitation records in September as well.
(see: http://climate.umn.edu/cawap/monsum/monsum.asp )
- the most significant weather event of October was a powerful storm which marched northeast across Minnesota on the 18th and 19th. The storm produced locally heavy rainfall totals of two to four inches along the North Shore, creating road-closing floods. Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph were reported across Minnesota. Gale warnings were posted along the near shore of Lake Superior.
- monthly mean temperatures for October 2007 were four to six degrees above the historical average throughout Minnesota. Extreme values for October ranged from a high of 90 degrees for multiple locations in west central and southeastern Minnesota on the 6th, to a low of 12 degrees at Embarrass (St. Louis County) on October 28. Numerous high maximum and high minimum temperature records were set on the 6th and 7th.
(see: http://climate.umn.edu/cawap/monsum/monsum.asp  )


WHERE WE STAND NOW

- substantial September and October rains flushed away drought concerns in most Minnesota counties. Only three months ago, one half of Minnesota was considered to be experiencing "Severe" or "Extreme" drought. The U. S. Drought Monitor, released on October 30, now places a relatively small area of west central and central Minnesota in the "Moderate Drought" category. Portions of northwestern and north central Minnesota remain designated as "Abnormally Dry", an acknowledgement of some lingering precipitation deficits. All other Minnesota locales are deemed to be free of drought conditions. The U. S. Drought Monitor index is a blend of science and subjectivity where intensity categories are based on several indicators.
(see:  http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html )
- the U.S. Geological Survey reports that discharge values for roughly one half of the state's rivers rank in the highest 25th percentile historically. Only five percent of Minnesota's rivers rank below the 25th percentile when compared with historical data for this time of year. This is a substantial improvement from early September when stream flow in one third of the state's rivers ranked in the lowest quartile.
(see: http://water.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/dailyMainW?state=mn&map_type=weekd , http://climate.umn.edu/dow/weekly_stream_flow/stream_flow_weekly.asp )
- water levels remain below average on some Minnesota lakes. However, the wet autumn caused most Minnesota lakes to rebound to within a range of levels commonly found at this time of year. In some cases, lake levels soared past mid-range in October and are now well above average. The Lake Superior water level is up five inches from early October. While the Lake Superior water level is no longer near the all-time seasonal low, it remains well below the long-term average.
(see: http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/now/wlevels/plots/superior.gif  , http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/lakefind/ , http://lwcb.ca/waterflowdata.html  )
- the Minnesota Agricultural Statistics Service reports that as of November 2, topsoil moisture across 79% of Minnesota's landscape was "Adequate". This is a substantial improvement from conditions reported in early August when nearly 85% of the state reported less than adequate soil moisture conditions.
(see: http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Minnesota/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/index.asp )
- the DNR Division of Forestry classifies current wildfire danger as "Low" across most of Minnesota. Wildfire danger in the metropolitan area is categorized as "Moderate".
(see: http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/forestry/fire/ )


FUTURE PROSPECTS

-  the November precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center has a strong bias towards below normal conditions across Minnesota. November precipitation normals range from around one inch in western Minnesota to over two inches in eastern sections of the state. The average date of the first enduring snow cover ranges from the first week of November in northeastern Minnesota, to the final week of November in south central counties.
(see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day , http://climate.umn.edu/img/normals/precip/precip_norm_11.htm )
- the November temperature outlook indicates no significant tendencies away from climatological probabilities across Minnesota. Normal November high temperatures are in the mid-40s to upper 40s to start the month, dropping to the mid-20s to near 30 by month's end. Normal lows are in the upper 20s early in the month, falling into the mid-teens by late November.
(see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day , http://climate.umn.edu/img/normals/temp_norm_adj/temp_norm_adj_11.htm )
- the November temperature outlook indicates no significant tendencies away from climatological probabilities across Minnesota. Normal November high temperatures are in the mid-40s to upper 40s to start the month, dropping to the mid-20s to near 30 by month's end. Normal lows are in the upper 20s early in the month, falling into the mid-teens by late November.
(see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=01 )
- the National Weather Service produces long-range probabilistic river stage and discharge outlooks for the Red River, Minnesota River, and Mississippi River basins. These products are part of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS).
(see: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc/ )


NOTES FROM THE AUTHOR

- none

NOTES FROM AROUND THE STATE

- none

UPCOMING DATES OF NOTE

- November 15: National Weather Service releases 30/90 day temperature and precipitation outlooks


WEB SITES FEATURED IN THIS EDITION

http://climate.umn.edu - Minnesota Climatology Working Group, Minnesota DNR Waters and University of Minnesota Department of Soil, Water, and Climate
http://www.drought.unl.edu - National Drought Mitigation Center
http://water.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/dailyMainW?state=mn&map_type=weekd - U.S. Geological Survey
http://www.lre.usace.army.mil - Detroit District, US Army Corps of Engineers
http://mndnr.gov/waters - Minnesota DNR Waters
http://lwcb.ca - Lake of the Woods Control Board
http://www.nass.usda.gov - USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
http://mndnr.gov/forestry - Minnesota DNR Forestry
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov - Climate Prediction Center, National Weather Service
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc - North Central River Forecast Center - Chanhassen, National Weather Service

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

- none

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