SUBJECT: Winter in Minnesota starts in...March?
Saint Cloud November 1998 and fall weather summary
The warm weather of the fall continued during November in St. Cloud.
The average temperature of 33.7 degrees was four degrees above normal
for the month. This was especially remarkable given the relatively cold
first half of the month. However, the extraordinary warmth at the end
of the month more than made up for it. Especially warm was this year's
Thanksgiving weekend. The high temperature on Thanksgiving Day 1998 was 57.
The only Thanksgiving Day which was warmer occurred on November 26, 1914
when the high reached 59 degrees. For the four-day Thanksgiving weekend,
1998 marked the first time that all four days had highs of over 50 degrees
(only 1909, 1914, 1960, and 1984 had two 50-degree highs during the weekend,
although the two days before Thanksgiving in 1914 had broken 50 degrees,
making it a 4-day streak). The average high for the 1998 Thanksgiving
weekend was 56.5 and the average low was 28.3, yielding a mean temperature
for the weekend of 42.4 degrees, easily topping the Thanksgiving weekend of
1914 when the average temperature was 38.5 degrees. These readings would be
typical of mid-April or mid-October with the high temperatures averaging 25
degrees above normal. Two daily records were broken during the holiday
weekend in 1998 with the 58 high on the 27th and the 59 high on the 29th.
The six consecutive days with a high of 50 degrees or warmer in 1998 is also
a record for the second half of November. However, these records are not
the warmest for so late in the year since the record high for December 6
is 63 (set in 1939).
Precipitation was above normal, mainly due to the storm of November
9 and 10, which dropped 1.05 inches of melted precipitation at the airport
and 1.41 inches at SCSU. The normal precipitation for the month of November
in St. Cloud is 1.27 inches. This storm also produced wind gusts up to 64
MPH at SCSU and produced a record low pressure for the state of Minnesota.
Much of the precipitation fell in the form of wet snow. Officially,
1.4 inches fell on the 10th. There were an estimated 2.0 inches of snow on the
9th, much of which melted before observers could record it the next morning.
While this will be stricken from the National Weather Service records, I am
retaining it since it lines up with my observations early on the 10th. Since
the NWS will no longer keep snow records, I believe the 3.4 inches from this
storm is more accurate and will retain it in the St. Cloud historical records.
Still, the mild weather left us with about half the normal snowfall
for this year and 1/3 of last November's total. Even in Sioux Falls, which
received over a foot of snow from that storm, and in Grand Forks, which has
already received half of its normal snowfall total for the year so far (more
than 21 inches), they are down to bare ground.
Overall, fall (Sept.-Nov.) of 1998 will go down as the 9th mildest
fall on record and the warmest fall since 1963, which was the mildest fall
of all time. Looking back upon the entire 3 month period, only the first
3 weeks of November was colder than normal and the fall was capped by the
warmest Thanksgiving holiday in St. Cloud history. The dryness of September
and October could not be made up by the wetter conditions in November, so
the fall ended up more than an inch and a half below normal in rainfall.
With another storm in the southwest US and a jet stream from the
mild southwest forecast for mid-week, it certainly looks like December will
pick up where November ended. And, for those of you who have been nagging me
since Labor Day about how cold this winter will be, the National Weather
Service official winter forecast issued last week shows a 5% better than
random chance for a colder than normal winter for only northern North Dakota
and northwestern Minnesota in the Northern Plains. Whatever.
SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 1998 NOV 1998 NORMAL
TEMPERATURE
Average high temperature ( F) 41.7 39.0
Average low temperature ( F) 25.7 20.3
Average temperature ( F) 33.7 29.7
Number of days with high of 32 or less 5 9.3
Warmest high for this month ( F) 59 on the 29th (broke record;
see below)
Coolest high for this month ( F) 30 on the 5th, 6th, 12th, and 19th
Mildest low for this month ( F) 37 on the 29th
Coldest low for this month ( F) 14 on the 12th
Daily record temperatures:
Record highs: 58 on the 27th (old record: 55 in 1909)
59 on the 29th (old record: 57 in 1932)
PRECIPITATION (in)
November 1.53 1.27
Greatest in 24 hours (Nov 1998) .67 on the 10th
SNOWFALL (in)
November 3.4 6.8
Greatest in 24 hours 2.0 on the 9th
Season (1997-1998) 3.4 7.3
SUMMARY FOR FALL (SEPT-NOV) 1998 FALL 1998 NORMAL
Average High Temperature (F) 59.5 55.2
Average Low Temperature (F) 37.6 33.4
Average Temperature (F) 48.6 45.2
Liquid precipitation (in) 4.67 6.29
Snowfall (in) 3.4 7.3
ST. CLOUD TEMPS--FALL (118 YEARS; AVG = 45.2 F; SDEV = 2.5 F)
WARMEST COLDEST
51.3 F 1963 38.0 F 1896
51.2 F 1931 40.3 F 1985
50.2 F 1908 40.4 F 1976
50.2 F 1914 40.6 F 1887
49.6 F 1922 40.7 F 1951
49.4 F 1900 40.7 F 1993
49.3 F 1953 40.8 F 1959
48.8 F 1899 40.8 F 1991
48.6 F 1998 <--9TH WARMEST 40.9 F 1926
48.5 F 1882 ON RECORD, 41.5 F 1911
WARMEST IN 35 YRS
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Bob Weisman, Meteorology Professor SUPERVISOR: Shirley (age 6 1/2)
Earth Sciences Department PHONE: (320) 255-3247 (V)
MS 48 (800) 627-3529 (TTY via
Saint Cloud State University Minnesota Relay Service)
720 4th Avenue South FAX: (320) 255-4262
Saint Cloud, Minnesota 56301-4498 EMAIL: scsweisman@tigger.
stcloudstate.edu
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